The are many questions regarding market expectations that we tend to find sufficiently addressed using historical data. “What’s your outlook for returns over the next x years?” generally gets a, “Well, historical x-year returns show a range of y% to z%, so likely something within that range.” The answer may not be satisfying, but it […]

This session, I ponder the motivations of and position our work against the "do this now!" punditry.

Though still relatively narrow in terms of the breadth of contributing stocks, the ongoing recovery from the 2021-22 bear market remains historically short and shallow. Past performance may tell us little in particular about the market’s future. But the historical context may offer fair reasons to maintain an otherwise risk tolerance-appropriate market exposure, despite the […]

In this podcast, I provide some early glimpses of the power of artificial intelligence in practice. I also discuss some concerns I have for the technologies' broader usage in investment management and allow Microsoft's CoPilot to chime in.

This month five years ago, we provided a data-focused retrospective showing performance subsequent to investments in the domestic stock market at near-term peaks. At the time, we had just experienced a year like no other: each month in 2017 saw a market peak (including the effects of dividends) higher than that achieved the prior month […]

A bit contrary to the old saw that diversification is your friend, just a handful of stocks generated the bulk of the market’s historically generous performance for the year to date. These enormous, mostly Technology-oriented companies also dominated market conversation in 2023. A good bit less covered are other distinctions of this year’s market momentum: […]