Global stock markets tanked on 11.05, the drop presumably sparked by fears that the “blue wave” U.S. electoral result will spoil the AI vibe. Thing is, seems this initial AI wave already had crested sometime earlier upon third-quarter earnings from a few AI leaders that showed AI to be mostly self-impoverishing at present. Since there’s […]
Interest rates around the globe have moved sharply higher over recent months, with no shortage of explanations. That no single reason works is not surprising, with most justifications seeming to lead to the observation that the shifts are rather rational: Higher for Longer? Across the developed world, yields on longer-term government-issued (“sovereign”) debt are meaningfully […]
With interest rates on the rise from who-can-be-sure-of-what (we have our thoughts...), bond prices are generally on the downtrend. But bond income (from the now generally higher yields) is on the rise. We therefore have once again entered the “60/40 Portfolio is Dead!” phase of the interest rate cycle. These generally lazy takes often fail […]
The past decade has not been particularly kind to diversifiers; a handful of large U.S. growth stocks generally outperformed international stocks, smaller companies and Value-oriented investments. As the gap widened, diversification may have looked less like prudent risk management and more like an unnecessary constraint. But recent strength across formerly lagging market segments offers a […]
When you invest in a specific stock, sector, theme (or meme), you’re basically saying you think it’s a better bet than all the other options out there. That is, any choice to invest in one thing is at the same time a choice not to invest in all other things. How sure can you be […]
Global equity markets have seen increased volatility as the war in Iran has prompted regional contagion. A consequent surge in oil prices has lifted concerns that cost-of-energy flow-through will lift going-forward inflation; the rise in interest rates that has come as a result has pressured bond markets. But the Iran war is only the latest […]
