Stocks roared higher in 2024, with growth stocks in the U.S. finding particular strength as the year wore on. Meantime, international equities generally suffered from weaker local returns and a stronger U.S. dollar. Investors betting on a broadly lower (and flatter) yield curve during the fourth quarter saw the opposite as longer-term yields rose, even […]

Our experience during the various boom-bust cycles of this millennium suggests themes built upon the sandy ground of indefensible valuations eventually erode. Relative gains may come, then, from having more heavily emphasized those stocks with sounder footings. Here again, the current environment presents value-minded U.S. equity market investors with a conundrum: Compared to…? It’s become […]

Over the next few weeks, attention almost assuredly will remain focused on the potential ramifications of the incoming Trump presidency. With policy specifics still light, we’ll offer what we find a more immediately relevant review of U.S. stocks: their present collective valuation. By most any measure, U.S. stocks are more expensive than they have been […]

Stocks here and abroad soared over the past year. Meantime, U.S. interest rates wavered but ultimately ended lower over the past twelve months, boosting fixed income gains. Aided by a strong decline in the U.S. Dollar over the quarter versus major world currencies, international developed stock markets outperformed U.S. stocks, while fresh stimulus in China […]

Investing naturally presumes expectations for a future result. Certain types of investing can just about guarantee a specific future result. Futures markets can provide such certainty, in that futures contracts are a legal agreement to transact a specific asset on a specific date. Investors can utilize futures markets to manage risk (i.e., by “locking in […]

In this podcast, I lament the quick-draw narratives that seem to drive short-term market volatility.