Lots of folks talking about how long-in-the-tooth is this bull market. Some conclude the end is near. Others see room to run. Regular readers hopefully can guess what we think. Regardless how one determines bull markets, neither its eventual length, nor the length and depth of the drawdown that succeeds it are determinable in advance. Calling a bull-run “old” gives it an unwarranted sell-by date. Implying there’s great room to run similarly disregards market unpredictability. Bull-market variables like duration and magnitude do not have natural ranges. Cyclical bull/bear outcomes are further examples of market randomness. Suggesting otherwise serves little good in assisting clients in their pursuit of financial goals.
0918 SRCM Commentary